Golden Globe Live Blog

I've never watched the Golden Globes before, so this is all pretty new to me, but I thought it might be fun to watch my picks go up in flames as the program goes along.

7:02 - The Globes does the nominees for "Best Supporting Actress," and I realize that they don't do film clips during the announcements. Weird, right? They just put a camera extremely close up to the nominee as the presenter talks about them. It's really awkward, especially since they're sitting at a table, so they don't see the camera, and then they turn around, see the camera, and start, and then try to clown around a little bit for it. It's impossibly awkward.

7:04 - Kate Winslet wins for The Reader. I'm one for one and feeling fine.

7:09 - Bruce Springsteen wins for his song for The Wrestler, unsurprising. Bruce looks like he's five years younger than he was the last time I saw him, and I don't really know how he managed it. He's not doing Pilates or eating egg white, y'know. Weird. Bill Simmons had a great bit on Springsteen being the halftime show:

As a lifelong Bruce Springsteen fan, the Super Bowl ads for his performance next month never stop flooring me. Don't they know how the man is wired? He can't bang out three songs without sprinkling one autobiographical story in there, and he certainly can't just go away without returning for an encore, right? (Note to the NFL: After Bruce finishes his set, hog-tie him to one of the uprights or else he's coming back out for three more songs. Just trust me. You don't want Bruce wandering back onto the field with his guitar like Shooter in "Hoosiers" and getting bowled over by a safety.) Look, Bruce might be telling the NFL, "Don't worry, I won't tell a story. I'll just sing my three songs and get out of there." But he won't be able to do it. You watch. We're gonna get a moment like this after the second song.

"Tampa Baaaaaaaay! (Crowd cheers.) Is anyone alive tonight??? (Crowd goes crazy.) Super Bowl Forty-Threeeeeee!!! (Crowd goes crazy as Bruce turns somber.) You know, when I was growing up, the only thing my dad hated more than me was my guitar. (Crowd hushes.) He was always saying, 'Bruce, I wish you never got that danged guitar.' So one day I was playing it in my room, my dad was watching Super Bowl Three between the Jets and … uh … uh … I think it was the Colts. Big man, was it the Colts? (Clarence says, 'Yeah, boss. The Colts.') Well, turns out my dad had a ton of money on the Colts … and they lost. But I didn't care. I was just up in my room strummin' my guitar. Then Dad came upstairs, and I remember asking, "Hey, Pop, who won the game?" And Dad got mad and broke my guitar over my head. He busted me up pretty bad, I needed 589 stitches to close the wound. From then on, I knew I needed to start watching football. And so I did. (Dramatic pause.) This is 'Darlington County.'"

7:16 - Tom Wilkinson wins for "John Adams." How did I miss that Wilkinson was nominated for this award? I think I vaguely looked at the list, saw that Piven was nominated, and said "well, he always wins." As soon as they shot a close-up on Wilkenson waiting for the announcement, I thought "aw, crud, I made the wrong pick."

7:18 - Simon Baker and Eva Longoria-Parker look very relaxed while doing their presentations on the stage, which is rare. Usually everyone just looks excited to get off the stage. It's strange how people so constantly in the limelight are often terrible at being in front of people.

7:19 - Laura Dern wins for "Recount." Hey, I got it right! That one was lucky.

7:26 - Cheadle looks a little nervous but seems to be having fun. Brad Pitt jokes! William H. Macy jokes! Doing this award show as a fake banquet instead of an awkward auditorium setting seems to relax everyone, which is nice - it feels less forced than the Oscars.

7:28 - Zac Efron is less orange than he normally is. Thank goodness. He finally doesn't look ridiculous.

7:29 - Has anyone every described Dr. House as anything but "cantakerous?" It seems like that should just be printed permanently on his character description.

7:29 - Gabriel Byrne won for "In Treatment!" It may be worth considering that "In Treatment" won so many nominations, I might have underestimated it pretty badly. Actually, so might Byrne, who didn't even bother to show up for the award show.

7:31 - Anna Paquin won for "True Blood!" She's pretty awful in that show. Wait, she's really awful in that show, and I adore Paquin. Huh. The Hollywood Foreign Press is hard to predict. And possibly pretty stupid.

7:38 - Ricky Gervais is my all-time favorite presenter. I want him to present every award in every award show I watch. Holocaust jokes! Bearded women jokes! Inner monologue jokes!

7:39 - Every time the Jonas brothers appear at any awards show, the director cuts to a shot of Miley Cyrus. In case you thought you were ever going to break free from that Disney label, Miley, you're not.

7:40 - Wall-E wins, no surprise. That one was no contest. Especially when up against Jack Black and Miley Cyrus. Woo. I'm not even proud of winning this one.

7:43 - Sally Hawkins won for Happy-Go-Lucky! I'm on a roll.

7:46 - Hawkins is weeping her way through this one. It's always nice to see someone who's truly gratified to be honored. Even by the Hollywood Foreign Press.

7:55 - John Adams gets the win for Best Mini-Series. I typed that sentence before the award was even given. I knew I wouldn't have to re-type it.

7:58 - Best Supporting Actor goes to... Heath Ledger. Oh, look, I did it again.

7:58 - Watching the actors respond to the announcement was a weird experience, though. Really weird.

8:00 - Chris Nolan calls Ledger's death "a hole ripped in the future of cinema." I like that. That sounds so right.

8:07 - Waltz With Bashir wins! I think the crowd was expecting I've Loved You So Long to take it since they cheered so loudly for it. Waltz With Bashir is an animated documentary, so you wouldn't expect it to win (but I did!).

8:09 - Is Aaron Eckhart's chin getting bigger? It's scaring the hell out of me.

8:10 - They're going through the nominees, and I'm just waiting for... "and Laura Linney wins for 'John Adams.'" Another safe bet.

8:11 - And I was right.

8:12 - Okay, while Linney's accepting, let's count up. We've gone through 12 categories, so we're about halfway through, and I've gotten... 9 of them. My goal is to do better than 14 in order to beat my best Oscar score, so I'm very close, and I've got a couple slam-dunk wins coming up, so it looks like I'm gonna break my record. I'm feeling good.

8:19 - Seth Rogen is also allowed to present at any awards show I watch. Cocaine jokes in prime time!

8:20 - Slumdog Millionaire gets the win. I have a feeling that this is gonna be the beginning of a landslide of Millionaire wins.

8:22 - Steve Carell should not be allowed to grow beards. That thing is gross.
Bold
8:22 - Woah, Tony Shalhoub's beard is even worse.

8:22 - Hey, Alec Baldwin won for Best Comedy Actor! I'm always excited to see my favorite candidate win, even if I didn't pick him. And let's be honest - was there a tougher category than this one? Outside of Kevin Connelly, I think all of the nominees had already won the award once before.

8:31 - And Paul Giamatti wins for "John Adams." Wow, this is easy when there are so many "John Adams" nominees.

8:36 - And "30 Rock" takes the the award for Best Musical or Comedy (you know, all those musical television shows are putting up a fight in this category). By the way, any time Tracy Morgan goes near a microphone on live television, stop what you're doing and pay attention, because that is craziness on par with Janet Jackson's costume malfunction waiting to happen. "I am the face of post-racial America! Deal with it, Cate Blanchett!"

8:44 - They showed a series of clips from Mamma Mia! I still have no idea how that sucker got nominated.

8:45 - And A.R. Rahman wins for Best Score! Glad I changed that one at the last second.

8:46 - Rahman thanks "the billion people from India." I'm sure they're grateful.

8:47 - Looking profoundly unhappy, David Duchovny announces from the stage "even though I didn't win, I'm very happy." Is it possible that Duchovny never looks happy, ever.

8:47 - Christina Applegate looks really healthy again! That's always good to see.

8:48 - And another acting win for Tina Fey! Isn't it bizarre that three years ago, she wasn't even really an actress? And whenever she wins, she always looks surprised to be up there. I like that.

8:53 - Alright, tallying up: Tina Fey won, Rahman won, "30 Rock" won, Giamatti won, Slumdog Millionaire won, and Duchovny lost, so that puts me at 14 out of 18. I'm killing tonight.

9:04 - Steven Spielberg is accepting the Cecil B. DeMille jokes and wisely avoiding "I'm ready for my closeup" jokes. I like watching Spielberg speak because he has an exact sense of his place in history, he's not spending the time acting as if he's falsely modest - he gives credit to the people who've brought him to this point, and never acting as if directing is the world's greatest profession. I wish more directors were like that.

9:12 - I am never going to watch the Globes again. This is the driest and least dramatic award show I've ever seen.

9:14 - We're finally doing Best Director, the only real battle this whole show. Here we go...

9:14 - Danny Boyle! I knew I should've changed my pick. I said I'd regret it.

9:15 - It's interesting to hear what names the actors in the room whoop for - Danny Boyle thanked his agent and everyone cheered wildly. I wouldn't have called that.'

9:19 - Oh my gosh, Colin Farrell won an acting award! Colin Farrell! This is insanity!

9:20 - Farrell announced from the stage "they must have been done the counting in Florida," which is exactly what I was thinking.

9:21 - If Farrell can win an award like this, I really need to see this movie, don't I?
Italic
9:22 - Y'know, four years ago, I thought Farrell was a talented actor, except I - like everyone - got blindsided by Alexander, and then, just when I thought it was safe to go back in the water, I saw Miami Vice, which - really - is physically painful to watch. But maybe it's time to let this go, huh?

9:29 - Only Sacha Baron Cohen would dare to do jokes so edgy the crowd actually boos them. I love that.

9:30 - Vicky Christina Barcelona wins Best Comedy! I'm not surprised, really, even though I didn't predict it. I have to admit that I didn't see Barcelona, so I can't really say if this is deserved or not. Anyway, the one thing we can all be proud of is the fact that - thank God - Mamma Mia! didn't win anything.

9:34 - Alright, we've got half an hour to go, and we still haven't covered Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, or Best TV Drama. I bet you they can get 15 minutes of commercials into the next 26 minutes.

9:39 - Kate Winslet wins again! Two straight! So much for not being able to win both awards.

9:40 - Winslet is on the stage and completely, adorably floundering. "I can't believe I'm here - Anne, Meryl, Julia - oh, God, who's the other one? Uh - uh - Angelina!" For as accomplished an actress Winslet is, she always seems so amazed to be winning anything.

9:43 - Rainn Wilson can also present any award at any show I watch. "Hello! We're television actors!"

9:44 - "Mad Men" wins! I'm glad they won something today.

9:51 - Woah, Mickey Rourke ended up pulling out Best Actor! Wow.

9:51 - He's getting a huge ovation in there. People are really excited for this.

9:53 - Darren Oronofsky just jokingly flicked off Mickey Rourke and they couldn't blur it in time! Awesome.

9:54 - Rourke has said "balls" at least seven times since he got up there, and awarded them to everyone except Evan Rachel Wood. Somewhere, a Globes producer is blanching.

9:54 - They're trying to play off Rourke so that they can do another round of commercials before the Best Picture announcement.

9:55 - And they succeed. More Target commercials!

9:58 - Best Picture... Slumdog Millionaire! There it is!

9:59 - I'm so glad I changed my pick.

9:59 - They're gonna run out of time - oh, how amazing would it be if this broadcast just cut off? Aw, c'mon! It'd be amazing!

10:01 - It didn't cut off. Oh, well.

10:02 - Alright, so let's tally up: I fell apart at the end and went from 14 out of 18 to 16 out of 25. Bleah. What a disaster. Still, I hit my goal! This is better than I've ever done on the Oscars.

10:03 - The new goal - to do better at the Oscars this year. 64% is a good number, but I want to do 75% for the Oscars this year. I can do it! We can build on this!

I still want to go undefeated, so:

I'm adjusting my Golden Globe selections, which were Benjamin Button heavy - I now feel that Button has failed to gather any sort of critical momentum, and won't be a major player at the Globes tonight:

Best Picture: I no longer think Slumdog Millionaire is the dark horse. I think it's now the favorite.
Best Score: A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire instead of Desplat's Benjamin Button score.

And I'm sticking with my Best Director pick of David Fincher, but I'm starting to think that Danny Boyle might be the guy. I'm probably gonna regret not switching, but I think Fincher actually was the best director this year, so I'm not dropping it.

And I thought I had my Best Actress pick locked up, but apparently Pia Zadora ruined it for me.

Also - how come the Golden Globe has "Best Film," "Best Musical or Comedy," "Best Foreign Language Film," "Best Animated Film," "Best Television Comedy," "Best Television Drama," and "Best Mini-Series," but no "Best Documentary?" Seems like an oversight.

Of course, this is the Golden Globes, which isn't a crowd that's really in favor of, um... thinking.

"Nobody Knows Anything," Part II

The quote in the title is from famed screenwriter William Goldman (The Princess Bride, Butch Cassidy and The Sundance Kid), commenting about the process of making movies. His point was that, no matter how scrupulously studio heads read scripts and make decisions, the reality is that everyone is pretty much guessing what movies are going to be huge successes and what ones are going to flop. I can rail against studios for ignoring artsy projects that get picked up by indie studios and turned into hits (a few years ago, all five Best Picture nominees had, at one time, been rejected by the same studio), but it's an impossible gig. No one really knows, for sure, what projects will be huge and what will tank. Having the Wachovski brothers, makers of the Matrix films direct a kid's film starring one of the best young actors out there, based off a very popular cartoon seems like a great idea to me, but Speed Racer was a disaster and bombed at the box office. So I can't point fingers.

The argument is, though, if the same holds true for an NBA draft. Is it really just all potluck? Were the Hawks misguided in choosing Shelden Williams over Brandon Roy? Or just unlucky? Can I really fault them for not picking Chris Paul? Or Tony Parker? Were Priest Lauderdale, and Royal Ivey bad selections - or just bad luck?

We can't know for certain, but a good test would be to see if the opposite is consistently true. If the Hawks are the worst drafting team in the NBA, what's the best drafting team? And has their organization consistently drafted well - or just occasionally gotten luck?

Well, here's the first argument that it's all luck: there aren't that many teams that draft that well in the NBA. A lot of the teams have made it through by filling their rosters through trades and free agency - with the occasional home run. Still, there are teams that have shown consistent foresight in the past ten years: Boston (Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Al Jefferson) has shown a real ability to spot top-tier talent in the middle of the first round, but they've also spent much of that time trying to amass mid-round picks, hoping to get lucky, and they've made a few mistakes along the way (Tony Allen over Kevin Martin, for example). Phoenix has also shown a propensity for making strong picks in the first round, whether early (Amar'e Stoudamire #4, Luol Deng #7, Shawn Marion #9) or late (Michael Finley #21, Steve Nash #16, Rajon Rondo #21). No one team, though, has drafted as consistently well in the middle of the first round as the Hornets, even late in the first round. 1996: Kobe Bryant (#13), 1998: Ricky Davis (#21), 1999: Baron Davis (#3), 2000: Jamaal Magloire (#19), 2003: David West (#16), 2004: J.R. Smith (#18), 2005: Chris Paul (#4). Wow.

Other teams have picked well despite never making the draft a priority. San Antonio has shown a propensity to trade their draft pick away at the slightest provocation, and because of their consistent winning ways, tend to pick at the very end of the first round anyway - something like 27th or 28th, usually. Even with this exceedingly large handicap, they've shown that they make every pick count - either finding All-Stars (1999: Manu Ginóbili at #57, 2001: Tony Parker at #29, ) or very solid role players (2002: John Salmons #26, Luis Scola #55, 2003: Leandro Barbosa #28, 2004: Beno Udrih #28). One of reasons the Spurs have remained a solid team, year after year, is that they continue to complement their stars with extremely well-selected draft picks.

Now we have both sides. The teams incapable of making good choices and the teams that never seem to go wrong. And everyone else is hit or miss. So, either:
a. It's all luck and some people get consistently lucky
b. It's not luck and some organizations are just impossibly terrible at it.
c. It's part luck, part skill, and the part that's skill is something the Hawks don't have any of.

I'm going for (c). But the major thing we've uncovered is this - if it's all luck, or mostly luck, then no team could have the sort of string that the Spurs, or the Hornets, or the Suns had - or the Hawks either, for that matter. It's just not possible.

So the people who excuse themselves for bad drafts as "there was no way we could know" are fooling themselves. Good drafting teams draft well - consistently. Bad drafting teams draft poorly - consistently. Luck absolutely plays a part in it, but there's a difference between Len Bias and Darko Miličić.

And unfortunately for the Hawks, there's a difference between Shelden Williams and Brandon Roy.