Oscar Nominations

It's too early to do Oscar predictions, though I felt pretty confident looking at the list that I could nail a good number of them this year. What's the goal I've set for myself? 75%? I can get there. Oscar Predictions coming in three weeks!

Ooh, that reminds me: apparently the Golden Globes are still pretty messy in terms of voting process, so it enables companies to buy up awards, because the Hollywood Foreign Press isn't the most... ethical voting group around (gasp!). So that explains victories like Anna Paquin and Gabriel Byrne. Whew. I thought everyone had just gone crazy (I talked about this in my live Golden Globes blog, which you did not read).

Instead, after Oscar noms, it's most appropriate to play "who was snubbed this year?" And the answer's pretty obvious: The Dark Knight got screwed. Garnering 8 nominations but not a Best Picture nod - almost a record - is a pretty clear indication that the Academy wanted to give them recognition but couldn't bear the thought of a comic book film being nominated for Best Picture. And there's something to be said for keeping the Oscars a place for serious, daring work - but isn't that the definition of what The Dark Knight was?

Let's do something fun for a second. Let me rank, without looking at anything, the Best Picture Nominees in order of how much I think they deserved this status:

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Milk
3. Frost/Nixon
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. The Reader

Now, let me list the five nominees I would have picked, in order:

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Milk
3. The Dark Knight
4. Wall-E
5. Frost/Nixon

Let's look at critical consensus on the five Best Picture nominees:

1. Slumdog Millionaire - 95% positive
2. Milk - 93% positive
3. Frost/Nixon - 91% postive
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 77% positive
5. The Reader - 60% positive

Alright, now let's look at my Best Picture list:

1. Slumdog Millionaire - 95% positive
2. Milk - 93% positive
3. The Dark Knight - 94% positive
4. Wall-E - 97% positive
5. Frost/Nixon - 91% postive

Good news: I'm awesome. I was going to run the box office of this list as well, but I realized that wouldn't make a difference - a lot of these films were released to one theater at the end of the year and are just now being released wide. It's an old trick: technically release your film in 2008 to qualify for all the award shows, then release your film to all theaters after you've already been honored as one of the finest films of the year. Smaller films like Slumdog Millionaire probably need the help, since without word-of-mouth buzz, they wouldn't ever gather an audience. Either way, let me grab the two box office numbers that matter: $530 million (The Dark Knight) and $220 million (Wall-E). That's a lot of change.

To sum up: if two films with such overwhelming critical and popular buzz cannot land a Best Picture nod despite not having a strong contender to match up against for one of the final spots (critics are already calling The Reader 'the most overrated movie of the year') simply because their genres are too unrespected, than the Oscars ain't never gonna change. If The Dark Knight can't do it, than no one can.

I watched The Dark Knight again last night, and it's baffling to me how that film is not one of the five finest this year. From the performances to the cinematography to the raw energy to the breathtaking scope, it's simply one of the most completely realized epics I've ever seen.

In terms of other Oscar snubs... well, I'm willing to deal. Anyone who's arguing that Clint Eastwood/Leonardo DiCaprio/Michael Sheen/whoever deserved a nod should remember that this is probably the single best Best Actor pool we've ever had. A bigger snub is the series of Golden Globe winners who didn't land a nomination at the Oscars: Sally Hawkins' win for Best Actress in a Comedy didn't translate into an Oscar nom, though somehow Angelina Jolie snagged a bid again. And biggest of all was Golden Globe winner Bruce Springsteen missing a nomination for Best Song, though somehow Slumdog Millionaire managed to snag two of the three spots (and can someone explain why there are only three spots available in a category like this?) since the Academy changed their rules on nominations in this category from merely frustrating to full-tilt baffling.

Outside of that, there's not too much to have a beef with this year. Kudos for nominations for Robert Downey, Jr. in Tropic Thunder and France for nominating the sweeter and less-seen The Class over buzzier pieces like Let The Right One In and I've Loved You So Long - though we should point out that it's rare that anyone's debating over what French movie they loved more (weird, right?). It's also nice to see the underappreciated Richard Jenkins get some Best Actor love, and to see Milk get so many nominations after being shut out of the Golden Globes, including a Best Director nod for Gus Van Sant (though, frustratingly, they shut out badass Sam Mendes for Oscar golden boy Steven Daldry).

In the long run, not too bad a list. Though I'm a little worried that the voting might sway away from the more deserving films to honor the less-deserving Benjamin Button in every category except the one it should win: Best Director.

Check back in before the ceremony for the final lowdown.

The New Zeitgest

This afternoon, after a long and strenuous campaign trail that seems to have started in 1987, Barack Obama will be sworn in as President of the United States.

I've long been uncertain of Obama's track record in public office, so I've approached this day with trepidation. I don't know if Obama is the right man for the job or not, but it seems to me that a large percentage of the American public deeply, truly believes that he is. And considering where our country's mindset is right now, that may be much more important. So regardless of what his actual intentions are, the belief that his plans are good and his directions infallible may be a more important factor in jump-starting the economy and bringing a politically divided country together than whether his plans are good or how far off course he ends up. He is, it seems, the man for the hour. The best of luck to him.

But if I read one more article explaining how Obama will personally change our entire culture by virtue of his incredible awesomeness, I will slam my head into a wall and hope I black out until the press' honeymoon with Obama is over (sometime around 2014, I'm guessing). Have you noticed how many reporters are pledging that they'll treat Obama the same as Bush and will be unafraid to "ask the tough questions?" It's always that exact line. I even heard David Gregory say it, and I honestly can't imagine anything less likely than Gregory treating Obama and Bush the same. I am more likely to win a boxing match with the Jolly Green Giant this Thursday than Gregory to treat Obama the same as Bush next year.

I read an article in the same issue of EW that I was mocking earlier where they explained how Obama being president would make everyone more patriotic, more hip to culture - though comedy will probably take a hit now that there's nothing available to mock (pssst - I can think of something). It also included this remarkable quote, which I will write down verbatim and then move on past without making any commentary.

"'Bad presidents usually mean good music and vice versa,' frets Steve Martin, head of Nasty Little Man, the publicity firm that reps Radiohead and Beck. 'Reagan gave us some of the best indie rock. Nirvana's Nevermind came out during Bush [Sr]. During the Clinton years, though, we got champagne-drenched hip-hop videos, nü-metal, and electroclash. I worry abou the quality of music that may be ushered in by a positive Obama presidency.' Aside form the Dixie Chicks, there can't be a whole lot of happy country artists at the moment, either. After eight years of rocking hte base of the Republican party in power, they're now on the outside looking in. Suddenly they're the counterculture. Maybe that will make for some darker country sounds in years to come.
Speaks for itself, doesn't it?

Okay, I will make one comment: 80's music sucked. The 80's were terrible. Indie rock barely existed in the 80's, everyone was too busy playing their Aha cassettes on their Walkmans. If we have to blame Reagan for something, let's blame him for Bananarama. It happened on his watch, and we all had to deal with it.

As a corollary, I'll point out that a google search for "Barack Obama Zeitgeist" turns up 669,000 results, while "Barack Obama Zeitgest" and "Barack Obama Zeitgiest" both turn up 1.34 million.

I guess that sorta says it all right there.