Golden Globes Predictions

Every year I do an Oscar prediction, but this is more fun.

It's too early in the year to have a general consensus - every award show preceding the Oscars gives you a pretty clear picture of what's ahead. So making predictions on what the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (referred to hence as the HFPA for my sanity. Fortunately, that's their actual acronymn anyway) will select is more a test of my actual prowess in determining what awards voters at large will be voting for this year than the Oscars ever will be. Selecting the Oscar winners just means I know how to use the internet to read multiple opinions by experts.*

* I will be completely disavowing this statement when I make my Oscar selections in a month or two.

The problem is that while critics and voters have already seen screeners of these movies, I haven't seen a lot of them yet - some of them haven't even come out yet. So I have to make selections based on how good I think a movie is going to be when it comes out, compared to the quality I've already judged in movies I've already seen. Tricky.

You might ask why I'm bothering; this all seems a particularly useless triviality, like placing bets on what color car will pass by next. Sure. But I don't care. This is the area I know something about, I like guessing and I like being right.

I also hate being wrong, so look for tears and foulmouthed griping the night these winners get announced. I don't know why I'm setting myself up for it - I'm already ticked enough that my powerhouse #1 seeded fantasy football team got bounced by Jonathan's #8 seeded, losing record-holding collection of cast-offs and never-weres, some of whom I'd traded to Jonathan two weeks prior. Curses.

I'll list the nominees in each category, then mention which films I've actually seen from each group.

Best Picture

Avatar
Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Precious
Up In The Air

I've seen Hurt Locker and Basterds, and I'll see Avatar tomorrow night, while Up In The Air and Precious haven't come out yet. I thought Hurt Locker was just unbelievable, but from everything I've seen and heard about Up In The Air, it looks like it might be the film to beat.

Best Actress In A Drama

Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria)
Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)

I've seen none of these movies (only two of them have been given a wide release yet), but I'm gonna assume that it's got to be between newcomers Mulligan and Sidibe. Precious is getting a lot of buzz and critical love, and Sidibe might be the funnel that goes through, but I'm picking Mulligan, who is already getting "breakout actress to watch in 2010" articles written about her. I'm getting a real, unknown-to-household-name, Kate-Winslet-in-Titanic vibe.

Best Actor - Drama

Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
George Clooney (Up In The Air)
Colin Firth (A Single Man)
Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
Tobey Maguire (Brothers)

Bad news for Freeman - the person getting all the recognition for Invictus is Matt Damon, which isn't a good sign for his chances. After all, a famed and respected supporting man playing Nelson Mandela in a Clint Eastwood movie, usually that's a guaranteed Oscar, but not this year. In fact, I'm guessing he's behind both Clooney and Firth. Not that I'd know - I've seen none of these movies yet.

Best Picture - Musical Or Comedy

(500) Days Of Summer
The Hangover
It's Complicated
Julie & Julia
Nine

I saw the Vegas odds on this category today, and was stunned to see that (500) Days of Summer has 7/1 odds of winning this category - the worst odds by far of the group. This is strange because, not only is Summer a fantastic movie, some of the movies in this group are supposed to be just awful - Nine has a 35% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, It's Complicated a 33% (Summer, by the way, has an 86%, best in the category). That said, this is the HFPA, and they love musicals, and they love spectacle, and they love Oscar winners, and they love when American films feel like foreign films, and the worship Fellini as their one true god, and they're not totally sold on quality in general, and so Nine will probably win. But if I were a gambling man, I'd put $30 on Summer, and cover it with $20 on Julie and Julia (7/2). But that's just me. Anyway, I'm picking (500) Days Of Summer, one of only two movies I've seen here. Damn the odds.

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical

Sandra Bullock (The Proposal)
Marion Cotillard (Nine)
Julia Roberts (Duplicity)
Meryl Streep (It's Complicated)
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

Contrary to popular opinion, the two Streep nominations probably don't actually split the vote. This is one of those categories that always needs filler, and voters love Streep, so she ended up in the category twice. The real battle here will be between Streep's performance in Julie & Julia and Cotillard, both of whom might get Oscar nominations as well. Despite only being in half the movie, it's gotta be Streep's Julia Child impression, right? I'd never pick against her.  By the way, I also haven't seen any of these movies, either.

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical

Matt Damon (The Informant!)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine)
Robert Downey Jr. (Sherlock Holmes)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt ((500) Days Of Summer)
Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)

Whew. Tough one. Voters love Day-Lewis, Stuhlbarg has both the "unknown carrying a movie" and the Coen Brothers' mystique working for him, Damon gained all that weight for his role, and Gordon-Levitt was just solid. The only one we can eliminate offhand is Downey in Sherlock Holmes, even though the movie hasn't come out yet and for all I know, he's all sorts of groundbreaking in it. Instead, I'm gonna assume that Damon has the edge here, but I'm gonna pick Gordon-Levitt, since I'm guessing he's actually the got the strongest case that he deserves it here.

Best Supporting Actress

Penélope Cruz (Nine)
Vera Farmiga (Up In The Air)
Anna Kendrick (Up In The Air)
Mo'nique (Precious)
Julianne Moore (A Single Man)

Hmm... I'm gonna bet it's between Cruz and Mo'nique, and I'm gonna pick Mo'nique. There's too much there - grunging herself up for the role, acting crazy, plus all the accolades the movie's getting. No one else's performance has as many hooks to hang votes on.

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon (Invictus)
Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds)

I've only seen one of these movies - Basterds - but the moment I walked out of that theater, I knew that Waltz was winning this award. He was impeccable in every detail, he dominated the screen, and he fluently speaks four different languages (English, German, French, and Italian) over the course of the film and is mesmerising in all of them. People point to that first scene in the farmhouse, but I found his back-and-forth with the sadly unnominated Mélanie Laurent in the French restaurant to be even more stomach-clenching - and his conversation in Italian with Brad Pitt the funniest moment in the film.

Best Animated Film

Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

It's nice to see diversity in animation this year - two stop-motion films, two computer-animated films, plus Disney's return to hand-drawn features - but I doubt we're seeing any diversity in awards. Pixar will almost certainly win the day for the deeply moving Up.

Best Foreign Language Film

Baaria (Italy)
Broken Embraces (Spain)
The Maid (Chile)
A Prophet (France)
The White Ribbon (Germany)

The only films I've heard any buzz over were Broken Embraces and The White Ribbon - and Embraces just because it stars Penélope Cruz (though it is a Pedro Almodóvar movie). Still, I'm picking The White Ribbon.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
James Cameron (Avatar)
Clint Eastwood (Invictus)
Jason Reitman (Up In The Air)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Basterds)

First of all, in case you haven't heard Bigelow and Cameron were once married, are now divorced, and are competing against each other in this category, which must be loads of fun to field questions about from reporters, day after day. I'm assuming it's a run-off between the two of them and Reitman, with each of them having a very good reason to be selected: Bigelow because women directors are never recognized, Cameron because of the tremendous scope of his film, and Reitman because it's the likely Best Picture winner. Put it this way, whoever wins Best Picture wins this award. Therefore, I'm keeping my vote in line with my predictions and picking Jason Reitman.

Best Screenplay

District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
It's Complicated
Up In The Air

District 9 and The Hurt Locker are both mostly triumphs of direction, and It's Complicated has no chance (also, ick. Why is this film nominated for anything?). Therefore it's a run-off between Up In The Air and Inglorious Basterds, and this is the category that Tarantino shines in. I'm gonna pick Basterds against my better judgment, just 'cause I think it'll make me look smart if I win and merely gutsy if I lose.

Best Original Score

Up - Michael Giacchino
The Informant! - Marvin Hamlisch
Avatar - James Horner
A Single Man - Abel Korzeniowski
Where The Wild Things Are - Karen O and Carter Burwell

Who knew the lead singer of the Yeah Yeah Yeahs would be nominated for a Golden Globe someday? Bizarre. Anyway, I'm picking James Horner here, because scores with a lot of scope - like Avatar's surely will be - tend to win these categories.

Best Original Song

"Cinema Italiano" - Nine (Maury Yeston)
"I See You" - Avatar (James Horner)
"I Want To Come Home" - Everybody's Fine (Paul McCartney)
"The Weary Kind (Theme From Crazy Heart)" - (Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett)
"Winter" - Brothers (U2)

Well, this is a mess. A traditional composer, a musical theater number, two aging rockers, and the guy who brought us the soundtrack to O Brother, Where Art Thou?. Also, I've never heard any of these songs. Not an easy call. I'm gonna pick McCartney, because... I dunno. He used to be a Beatle.

Alright, moving to television:

Best TV Series - Drama

Big Love (HBO)
Dexter (Showtime)
House (Fox)
Mad Men (AMC)
True Blood (HBO)

Mad Men will win. Because that's what Mad Men does.

Best Actress - Drama

Glenn Close (Damages)
January Jones (Mad Men)
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
Anna Paquin (True Blood)
Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)

Margulies might be a rising star here, but I've got to assume that Glenn Close gets the win here in a tight field. Still, Paquin had a upset here last year, so all bets are off.

Best Actor - Drama

Simon Baker (The Mentalist)
Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
Hugh Laurie (House)
Bill Paxton (Big Love)

I'm gonna assume that Jon Hamm'll nab the win because, y'know, he's in "Mad Men" (and also, he's very good), but I wouldn't discount Hall, who's getting more press than usual this year.

Best Comedy

30 Rock (NBC)
Entourage (HBO)
Glee (FOX)
Modern Family (ABC)
The Office (NBC)

"30 Rock" is the logical pick, but I wouldn't discount an upset from "Glee", who snagged four nominations this year. Plus, "The Office" had a particularly strong comeback this fall and can't be discounted.

Best Actress - Comedy

Toni Collette (United States Of Tara)
Courteney Cox (Cougar Town)
Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
Tina Fey (30 Rock)
Lea Michele (Glee)

Collette got the win during the Emmys, but I'm predicting a Tina Fey comeback this time around.

Best Actor - Comedy

Alec Baldwin (30 Rock)
Steve Carell (The Office)
David Duchovny (Californication)
Thomas Jane (Hung)
Matthew Morrison (Glee)

Even with the newcomers to the group, it's still Baldwin's category to lose.

Best Mini-Series or TV Movie

Georgia O'Keeffe (Lifetime)
Grey Gardens (HBO)
Into The Storm (HBO)
Little Dorrit (PBS)
Taking Chance (HBO)

Barring an upset from Taking Chance, it's gotta be Grey Gardens, which was the TV movie of the year in every aspect.

Best Actress - Mini-Series or TV Movie

Joan Allen (Georgia O'Keeffe)
Drew Barrymore (Grey Gardens)
Jessica Lange (Grey Gardens)
Anna Paquin - The Courageous Heart of Irena
Sigourney Weaver - Prayers For Bobby

Lange won the Emmy for this role, so it's logical she'd win it again here. Whenever possible, I'm gonna stick with the Emmy vote, as best I remember it.

Best Actor, Mini-Series or TV Movie

Kevin Bacon (Taking Chance)
Kenneth Branagh (Wallander: One Step Behind)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (Endgame)
Brendan Gleeson (Into The Storm)
Jeremy Irons (Georgia O'Keeffe)

Gleeson won the Emmy, I'll stick with him here.

Best Supporting Actress, Series, Mini-Series or TV Movie

Jane Adams (Hung)
Rose Byrne (Damages)
Jane Lynch (Glee)
Janet McTeer (Into The Storm)
Chloe Sevigny (Big Love)

I'm picking Byrne, because I think she's just hit that climax point of recognition for her acting chops opposite Glenn Close. Possible upset? Has to be Lynch.

Best Supporting Actor, Series, Mini-Series, or TV Movie

Michael Emerson (Lost)
Neil Patrick Harris (How I Met Your Mother)
William Hurt (Damages)
John Lithgow (Dexter)
Jeremy Piven (Entourage)

This is a crapshoot of comedic roles and dramatic ones, with a number of past winners in this very category, so I'm gonna assume that there's enough "Lost" love out there to give Emerson the win in this category. Tough call, though.

The Globes aren't until... let me check... January 17th, so I'm a little early here. But at least you can't say I copied anyone else. In a world of near-duplicated prediction lists, that's gotta count for something.

Tune in to NBC January 17th to see how right I end up being. Or, do what I assume you'll do - ignore the event entirely and check my blog the next day to see how many I ended up getting right, then leave a snarky message in the comments section.

Hopefully, by then, I'll actually have seen some of these movies.

Whitest Kids U'Know

I was home for my friends' Steve and Tina's wedding, and had the fun of spending the 48 hours before the wedding hanging out with Steve, doing the things men do. Which is, mostly, quoting web videos.

Steve turned me on to the joys of The Whitest Kids U'Know - considering that it's Steve and me, the title is at least mildly ironic - which I'd never checked out before. Here's a couple highlights for the likewise unitiated.

Call Of Duty

Moon Bears

Grapist

Tiger Woods Slow Jam

Because not nearly enough people have seen this:

Bear in mind, after watching, you'll find yourself singing the tune in random and inappropriate moments during the day.

It's rough out there.

Everyone left work early today because of inclement weather - they didn't want to leave before the snowfall got too bad and the roads weren't driveable.

I stayed behind, because I had work to do, and also because the weather looks like this:

Keep in mind, I took these pictures at the exact moment everyone else was leaving.

Pro Bowl Voting

I voted on the Pro Bowl today, which I'd never done before. It was a disappointing experience.

I appreciate that the NFL trusts their voters enough to have them select starters from every position, but I say this as a fairly substantial football fan: I have no idea who to select in most of the categories. Quarterback, wide receiver, running back, tight end - sure. Cornerback, strong safety, free safety, punt returner - maybe. But that's only 8 of 19 categories. The vast majority of NFL fans are in no way capable of making intelligent selections on these categories, yet they will vote anyway. They will vote for either their team's players, or they will vote for names they recognize, which is part of why certain "name" players continue to return to the Pro Bowl year after year, despite ineffective play.

It makes you appreciate the strategy of players like Joey Porter - it's smart to be mouthy, because it means that fans will remember you when it comes time to vote.

I thought I'd walk you through my Pro Bowl ballot, both to highlight the players I'm rooting will be recognized this year, and to open my ballot up to the harsh daylight of the Internet. But mostly, I want to you understand: I am an NFL fan. I play a lot of fantasy football. I watch all of the games that I can, regardless who's playing, and I notice things like who made which block where, and all of those details. And yet this is my ballot:

Quarterback

AFC - Tom Brady (Patriots), Peyton Manning (Colts), and Matt Schaub (Texans)

Everyone already knows Brady and Manning are locks for the Bowl this year, but did you know Schaub already has over 2600 yards and has 17 touchdowns (not counting tonight)? Apologies to Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers, who have similar stats but have had bigger downsides this year.

NFC - Drew Brees (Saints), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), and Brett Favre (Vikings)

Ugh. I hate doing it, but I have to admit - not only is Favre having a very good season, he's also having possibly the finest season of his long career. He's got nearly 2500 yards at a 70 percent completion rate, with 21 touchdowns and only 3(!) interceptions, which is mind-blowing when you consider what a gunslinger he's historically been. What's worse: if the season ended today, he would be a near-unanimous choice for MVP. Just awful to think about.

Running Back

AFC - Chris Johnson (Titans), Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars), and Cedric Benson (Bengals)

If I had my way, Cedric Benson would win the MVP trophy this year. Also, did you know Chris Johnson is within reach of a 2,000 yard season? He'd have to rush for 130 yards a game from here on out, which isn't crazy when you consider he's averaging over 120 right now. Apologies to Ray Rice, who may finish as a top-5 RB.

NFC - Adrian Peterson (Vikings), Steven Jackson (Rams), and DeAngelo Williams (Panthers)

Steven Jackson is currently number two in rushing yards this year (1,031), ahead of everyone but Johnson, even the much-ballyhooed Adrian Peterson - and all this behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. I would bet that if you asked most NFL fans where Jackson ranked on the rushing charts, they would estimate somewhere from 8th to 10th. This is just another of many reasons why it sucks to be a St. Louis Ram.

Wide Receiver

AFC - Reggie Wayne (Colts), Randy Moss (Patriots), Wes Welker (Patriots), Andre Johnson (Texans)

It's not homerism as a Patriots or Texans fan - Moss and Welker are both top-5 in receiving yards this season, as are both Johnson and Wayne. The only NFC member? Go ahead, guess which one of these it is:

NFC - Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals), Steve Smith (Giants), Sidney Rice (Vikings), Roddy White (Falcons)

Give up? It's Sidney Rice. No kidding. Also, my selection of White was just personal preference - Chad Ochocinco (Bengals) and Desean Jackson (Eagles) would also be acceptable selections.

Tight End

AFC - Dallas Clark (Colts) and Antonio Gates (Chargers)

NFC - Vernon Davis (49ers) and Tony Gonzalez (Falcons)

Clark and Gates are clear selections for their receiving yards, and Davis has more receiving touchdowns than any other player except Larry Fitzgerald. Gonzalez? Just having his standard excellent season - he's not significantly better than Brent Celek, who has almost identical stats and on less targets

Alright, now it gets tricky. Keep in mind, up to this point, I have recognized every single player on the ballot and know what kind of year they're having, good or bad. My vote was an extremely intelligent, well-reasoned ballot, though I'm certain you could argue against some of my picks if you wanted. But they were all smart, well-chose votes. Now, look at what happens here:

Center

AFC - only recognized one player: the Colts' Jeff Saturday. Didn't vote.

NFC - didn't recognize anyone.Didn't vote.

Tackles

AFC - picked Damien Woody (Jets), Duane Brown (Texans), and Matt Light (Patriots).

I'm actually not sure if I remember Woody and Brown because they're good at their jobs or terrible at them, but either way, I recognized them. Light is obviously a stud, though I think he's been hurt all year. He also might be old now. The only other name I recognized was Michael Oher, about whom the new Sandra Bullock film, The Blind Side, is the life story of (Bullock, unfortunately, does not play Oher). Oher is having a bad year, which is very bad timing for both him and the movie (not that anyone who's going to go see a feel-good movie starring Bullock is going to care). He'll probably be voted into the Pro Bowl anyway.

NFC - Only recognized a few names, such as washed-up former star Orlando Pace, so the only name I vote for was the Panther's Jeff Otah.

Guards

Didn't really recognize anyone. Moved on.

Fullbacks

AFC - Vonta Leach (Texans)

NFC - Leonard Weaver (Eagles)

Only recognized four or five player, but picked Leach and Weaver since I know they're extremely involved in their teams' gameplans.

Strong Safety

AFC - Brandon Merriweather (Patriots)

Troy Palomalu (Steelers) will obviously win this one, though he's been hurt for so much of the year he really shouldn't. I toyed with the idea of selecting Bernard Pollard (Texans), who is having a great season, but couldn't because... well, you know.

NFC - Adrian Brown (Cardinals)

The only name I really recognized, since he's had a few high-profile interceptions.

Cornerbacks

AFC - Darrelle Revis (Jets), Nnamdi Asomugha (Raiders), Brandon Flowers (Chiefs)

This one I was sort of qualified to vote on, but mostly because Revis and Asomugha have been so top-notch that football fans know them right off. By the way, you have to be impressed with the way Asomugha has worked to try and make "Nnamdi Asomugha" the world's most unlikely household name.

NFC - Asante Samuel (Eagles), Charles Woodson (Packers), DeAngello Hall (Chiefs)

I'm mostly assuming they're having good seasons based off their reputations.

Defensive Ends

AFC - Robert Mathis (Colts), Dwight Freeney (Colts), Mario Williams (Texans)

I recognized probably half-a-dozen guys, including one or two I knew were having bad years.

NFC - Will Smith (Saints), Trent Cole (Eagles), Jared Allen (Vikings)

Would I have remembered Will Smith, who already has 8.5 sacks this year, if his name didn't make announcers make lame hip-hop jokes whenever he makes a good play? Probably not.

Defensive Tackles

AFC - I picked Shaun Cody, because he's a Texan, Vince Wilfork, because he's a Patriot, and Tank Johnson, not because he's a Bengal, but because he has a great name.

NFC - Sedrick Ellis (Saints) and both members of the Vikings' "Williams Wall," Pat and Kevin Williams.

Free Safety

AFC - Only recognized a couple names, but Ed Reed (Ravens) was an easy selection (though I considered the Steeler's Ryan Clark, too)

NFC - Darren Sharper (Saints) is having a monster season, which is good, because I didn't recognize hardly anyone else.

Inside Linebackers

AFC - Jerod Mayo (Patriots), Ray Lewis (Ravens).

And this is why it's smart to be mouthy like Lewis - people know who you are and vote for you. He'll be making the Pro Bowl until he's 50.

NFC - Patrick Willis (49ers), A.J. Hawk (Packers)

Only recognized three or four names, and wasn't totally sure I knew if these guys are having good years or not.

Outside Linebackers

AFC - Elvis Dumervil (Broncos), James Harrison (Steelers), Terrell Suggs (Ravens)

You've got to feel bad for Dumervil - even though he's leading the league in sacks, he's listed as an outside linebacker in some places and a defensive end in others, so no one knows where to go to vote for him. And then, his name is misspelled on the ballot! He's listed as "Elivs."

NFC - Danny Clark (New York Giants), DeMarcus Ware (Cowboys), Lance Briggs (Bears)

Hey, the Bears are actually gonna be able to send someone to the Pro Bowl! Also, I only recognized four names.

Kick Returners

AFC - Joshua Cribbs (Browns)

You've got to feel for the Browns - their best player is their kick returner. Not nominated, by the way: Ted Ginn, Jr., who set an NFL record by returning two kicks for a touchdown in a single game. Strange.

NFC - DeSean Jackson (Eagles)

One of the most exciting receivers in the game is also one its best kick returners.

Kickers

AFC - Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots)

NFC - Lawrence Tynes (Giants)

I play fantasy football, so I knew that these guys were playing well, though I couldn't give you any stats.

Punters

AFC - Chris Hanson (Patriots)

NFC - Jeff Feagles (Eagles)

Only two names I recognized.

Special Teams

AFC - Joshua Cribbs (Browns) - in case he doesn't make it as a kick returner

NFC - Desmond Bishop (Packers) - though I don't know why.

And that'll do it. How sad was that?

Here's what I think: NFL fans should only be allowed to vote for certain positions - quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, cornerback, strong safety, free safety, kicker, and kick returner.

All other starting positions will be voted on by a select crowd of football reporters, but the fan gets to vote for which reporters are given that position. Wouldn't that be fun?