Round-Up on NBA predictions

I hadn't looked back at my NBA predictions for the year since I did them, but I was pleasantly surprised to find that I did better than expected. Of the ten predictions, most of them are roughly on the money and some of them are dead on. Of course, my 1-through-15 list of all teams in each conference was... spotty at best. My major problem seemed to be an overabundnace of faith in my Boston Celtics, which is I guess undertstandable though not really excusable.

I said that the Celtics would suffer through a slew of injuries and "inner turmoil" (right), but still end up with the Easter Conference's best record (whoops). Likewise, I felt that the Spurs' depth and experience would lead them to the top seed in the Western Conference (didn't work out that well, either). However, I correctly saw that preseason playoff buzz for the Clippers and Wizards was pie-in-the-sky nonsense, and now the teams are a combined 51-106.

I also felt that the Thunder and the Rockets were both severly underrated and would be in playoff contention (they're currently the 8th and 9th seeds in the West). I also felt that the Warriors (24-54) might be a sleeper pick, but I don't feel terrible about that (that one felt a lot like picking a 12 over 5 in the first round of March Madness - you feel great if they win and demand high-fives from passers-by, and if they lose you shrug it off. I've shrugged off my Warriors love).

My sleepers for players who would have unexpectedly big years were King's eighth-man Jason Thompson (averaging 12.5 ppg and 8.5 rpg, and just became a starter), Allen Iverson (well, he did make the All-Star team), Baron Davis (had an average year for him), Carmelo Anthony (upped his game in every category, including 4 full ppg higher, making him 3rd in scoring in the NBA this year), Andrea Bargnani (also made huge leaps in every category), and Michael Beasley (showed slight improvement, nothing dramatic).

I also predicted big years for anyone on the Thunder under 25 (Kevin Durant (30 ppg, 7.5 rpg, might win scoring title and an MVP candidate), Russell Westbrook (16 ppg, 5 rpg, 8 apg, and had numerous "where did this guy come from?" articles written), Jeff Green (averaged 15 ppg and 6 rpg, continues to be excellent role player for Thunder), Serge Ibaka (came out of nowhere to average over 5 rpg), and James Harden (10 pgg, slightly disappointing rookie year, but fitting into the team nicely), and for anyone on the Rockets not name Yao or T-Mac (Aaron Brooks (averaging 20 ppg and 5 apg, can now be considered a legitimate All-Star-quality point guard), Trevor Ariza (became solid starting SF, averaging 15 ppg and 5 rbg, appears to be fantastic value for the contract he was signed to), Chase Buddinger (9 ppg, a steal in the mid-2nd round last year), Kyle Lowry (improvement in all categories), plus the addition of Kevin Martin (22 ppg, upped his scoring and shooting percentages as soon as he arrived in Houston)).

I'm counting most of those as wins, Beasley and Davis as a wash, and Iverson as my only failure. Doing well!

Plus, I had the following players - all of whom were predicted to have significant regression in their games - holding steady in their production: Ray Allen (maintained his career-high FG% but dropped slightly in both 3-pt FG% and scoring) Dwayne Wade (dropped slightly in most categories), Steve Nash (at age 36, actually improved his numbers), Jason Kidd (age 37 and also improved his numbers), and Nate Robinson (couldn't get playing time under Mike D'Antoni, traded to Celtics to provide offense off the bench rather than start).

So, we'll count Robinson and Wade as a failures, Allen as a slight failure, and Nash and Kidd as wins. Meh.

Lastly, based on the fact that I felt he wouldn't be able to return at full strength from his knee injury and that all this talk of it being a "one-man draft" was stuff and nonsense, I predicted that someone other than Blake Griffin would win the Rookie of the Year Award, which - since he ended up missing the entire season with the injury - should probably be a lock.

That was fun! I'm encouraged to do a run of baseball predictions sometime this weekend and to hope for similar success.

Much more fun than you might expect.

I went the National Funeral Museum this week for work - I had to do a shoot there with a girl who's training to be a funeral director - and enjoyed myself immensely. It's mostly a collection of old hearses, some of which were quite ornate, and a interesting caskets, the best of which was one covered in money called the "You Can Take It With You" casket.

The best part by far was the fact that the museum has a large gift shop, because, of course it does. T-shirts and mugs with mildly catchy slogans ("Any day above ground is a good one", etc.) were prevalent, but the real winner was the large collection of death-themed toys and children's decorations.  I didn't buy anything, but I did take some pictures:

This last one reads: "Cremation: The Last Time Anyone Lights Your Fire"

 

Oscar Results

This year, I got 19 out of 24 categories right, only missing Foreign Language film, Live Action Short, Documentary Short, and both Screenplay categories. Possibly my best year, I can't recall ever doing better.

Thrilled to see Bigelow get Best Director and Hurt Locker win Best Picture, though it turns out that I didn't program my DVR to capture past the time it was supposed to end, so I missed all four of the major categories. Whoops. Well, it's the result and not the speeches that thrill me, anyway.

Decided during the show that I definitely need to see An Education, pronto. Who's in?

Oscar Predictions 2010

I meant to do a full Oscar preview this week, but I got sick and spent all the free time I could in bed, sleeping. Never managed to summon the energy. Anyway, the show starts in 25 minutes, so here are my picks:

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker

If this film beats Avatar, that will be the biggest win of the night for me. You might remember this piece, when it still seemed like Avatar was a runaway winner and I pleaded for Oscar voters to reconsider.

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Most of you already know this, since this piece of information has been everywhere, but Bigelow is only the fourth woman to be nominated for an Oscar in directing, a group that no woman has ever won. She's the first woman to ever really have a chance at it, too, so I'm pulling for her. That said, a victory for her here doesn't actually open any doors for women, it probably just puts a band-aid on the fact that it's tough - much too tough - for a woman to grab a directing gig in Hollywood. And James Cameron blew me away as a director on Avatar, so... I'm hopeful Bigelow, but not devastated if she doesn't land the prize.

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Didn't see it, but he's the favorite.

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

Easy choice - the clear frontrunner and a stunningly good turn in Basterds.

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

In five years, this'll become, "hey, do you remember when Sandra Bullock won Best Actress?" "Nope."

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, Precious

Didn't see it, but she's the clear winner here.

Best Documentary Feature: The Cove

It's that or Food, Inc., though to be fair, it's often a surprise who wins this category. That said, The Cove was the buzziest documentary of the year by a long shot.

Documentary Short: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant

I'm gonna pick economic depression over all other topics as the this year's cause-winner.

Animated Feature: Up

People are pushing Fantastic Mr. Fox as a possible upset here - and it's a very deserving pick - but Up was a Best Picture nom and it's going to win this running away.

Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon, Germany

Sure, this is a tough category because so few voters see all five foreign language films, but The White Ribbon had Oscar buzz, and none of the other films did. Possible upset: Un prophète, the French film about... something or other. Possibly something about a prophet. It is French film, so there's no guarantee.

Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds

Look for strong pushes from the Coen Brothers and maybe Mark Boal for Hurt Locker, but I think Basterds was so strong that people will want to honor Tarantino in a year where he's certainly not going to win anything else.

Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up In The Air

I think this one's a clear selection, none of the other screenplays jump out.

Cinematography: Avatar

The consolation prize.

Art Direction: Avatar

Has to be Avatar, that movie was, if nothing else, a triumph of art direction.

Animated Short Film: Logorama

I dunno. It sounds fun.

Live Action Short Film: Kavi

Sure.

Visual Effects: Avatar

Duh.

Costume Design: The Young Victoria

Because, I dunno, history.

Film Editing: The Hurt Locker

You have to win this category to win Best Picture, plus that thing was edited razor-sharp.

Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker

Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker

Someone is winning both, and it's probably Avatar or this. Wouldn't it be fun if Transformers won, though, the same day as winning a Razzie? That'd be fantastic.

Original Score: Up

Maybe? I love Michael Giacchino, so I'm going with this. I have no confidence here.

Original Song: "The Weary Kind," Ryan Bingham

Really, the only possible winner here.

Makeup: Star Trek

Finally wins something, mostly for making Rachel Nichols green.

 

Alright, I'll check my win total at the end of the night. Here's my list of who I'd like to win

Best Picture: Hurt Locker

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Actor: Jeremy Renner

Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan

Best Supporting Actress: Anna Kendrick

Best Documentary Feature: The Cove

Best Documentary Short: Ditch the category

Animated Feature: Up and Fantastic Mr. Fox tie

Foreign Language Film: Take your films back, foreigners!

Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds

Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up In The Air

Cinematography: The Hurt Locker

Art Direction: Avatar

Animated Short Film: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Live Action Short: Why is this even a thing?

Visual Effects: Star Trek

Costume Design: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

Film Editing: The Hurt Locker

Sound Mixing: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker

Original Score: Michael Giacchino, Up

Original Song: Throw out all of the current contestants except for Ryan Bingham, then start over. Then, just give the award to Bingham anyway.

Makeup: Star Trek